US Recession Watch, January 2021
US Recession Watch Overview:
- Though US Treasury yields have risen in latest weeks, 4Q’20 development expectations have slid. A double dip recession might or will not be averted in 1Q’21, relying upon the timing of US fiscal stimulus.
- The New York Nowcast estimate for 4Q’20 GDP is at +2.58%, whereas the Atlanta Fed GDPNow mannequin is pointing to loftier+7.5% development.
- Charges markets proceed to forecast no change within the Federal Reserve’s foremost rate of interest by January 2022; the Fed has pledged to maintain charges low by 2023.
Making Sense of US Financial Information
On Thursday, the 4Q’20 US GDP report might be launched. A Bloomberg Information survey is asking for US GDP to come back in at +4% annualized in 4Q’20 after surging by a file +33.4% in 3Q’20. Relying upon the place you look, estimates differ considerably. The New York Nowcast estimate for 4Q’20 GDP is at +2.58%, whereas the Atlanta Fed GDPNow mannequin is pointing to loftier+7.5% development.
However the reality of the matter is that Bloomberg…